The Fed cut rates three times at the end of 2024 (September 18, November 7, and December 18). Mortgage rates fell into September, nudged higher through late November, and rose after the December cut—proving (again) that mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed. They’re driven more by the 10-year Treasury, inflation expectations, term premium, MBS spreads, and what markets already priced in.

The Visuals

Chart 1 — Mortgage Rates vs. the Fed Funds Target (Aug 2024–Jan 2025)

Overlays weekly Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed against the Fed funds target (upper bound) with markers on each cut.

Chart 2 — What Happened After Each Cut? (4-week average before vs. 4-week average after)

Quick bar chart showing the average PMMS change around each 2024 cut.

What the numbers say (4-week windows):

Sep 18 (-50 bp): mortgage rates fell ~19 bps on average in the following month.
Nov 7 (-25 bp): rates rose ~30 bps in the next four weeks.
Dec 18 (-25 bp): rates rose ~12 bps over the subsequent four weeks.
Source data: Freddie Mac PMMS weekly archive.

Why Mortgage Rates Didn’t Obey the Fed (and rarely do)

Markets move on expectations, not announcements.
By September, investors had largely priced in the first cut; mortgage rates had already drifted down into the 6.1%–6.4% range before the meeting. Freddie Mac’s own outlook noted most of the decline was “already baked in” before that first cut.
Mortgage rates key off the 10-year Treasury + MBS spreads.
The 30-year fixed rate tends to track the 10-year yield (plus a spread) far more than the overnight Fed funds rate. When growth/inflation expectations or supply dynamics push the 10-year up (or widen MBS/primary-secondary spreads), mortgage rates can climb—even if the Fed is cutting. (See late-2024/early-2025 when post-election policy expectations and term premium put upward pressure on yields.)
“Hawkish cuts” are a thing.
In December, the Fed cut but signaled a slower path of easing in 2025. Markets heard “fewer cuts ahead,” repriced yields higher, and mortgage rates popped into January. Multiple outlets documented that early-2025 rise despite the cuts.

What Happened Specifically in Late 2024?

Fed cuts: Sep 18, 2024 (-50 bps), Nov 7, 2024 (-25 bps), Dec 18, 2024 (-25 bps).
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac PMMS):
September into early October: fell to ~6.09%–6.12%;
Late October through November: drifted up toward 6.8%;
Post-December cut: rose from 6.60%–6.72% in mid/late December to roughly 6.9%–7.0% by mid-January.

Translation: the “Fed cut = your 30-year fixed drops tomorrow” myth needs a gentle retirement party.

How to Understand this as a Consumer

Set the frame: “The Fed controls overnight money; mortgages price the next decade.”
Watch the right dashboard: Analyze the 10-year Treasury, core inflation, growth data, Treasury supply, and MBS spreads—not just the Fed statement.
Action beats prediction: Negotiate price and credits now; use temporary buydowns, permanent buydowns, and refi strategy to control total cost, not just today’s headline rate.
Local reality matters: Inventory, concessions, and acceptance of contingencies can easily outweigh 0.125%–0.250% in rate noise.

My Crystal Ball

Right now, buyers are landing some of the best deals we’ve seen in a while thanks to higher inventory and fewer active shoppers. But that dynamic won’t last forever. As we move into fall and winter—and the headlines start blaring “The Fed dropped rates”—expect buyers to re-enter the market in droves. That means competition will heat up quickly. Great news for sellers, but it could create real challenges for first-time buyers, those with tighter budgets, and anyone needing to sell before they buy.

If you are one of these buyers, don’t wait.

Sources

Fed cuts (official statements): Sep 18 (-50 bps), Nov 7 (-25 bps), Dec 18 (-25 bps). Federal Reserve+2Federal Reserve+2
Freddie Mac PMMS archive (weekly mortgage rates): 2024–2025 series used in charts. Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac Outlook (Nov 2024): declines largely priced in after first cut. Freddie Mac
Context on early-2025 rates rising despite cuts: Bankrate, MarketWatch. Bankrate MarketWatch

Do Fed Rate Cuts Lower Mortgage Rates? Not Always.